Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 9.370949 10.765274 12.266973 14.001023 15.944489 18.051743 20.505666
2025-11-30 7.360947 9.255942 11.455942 14.184194 17.460982 21.253422 25.957113
2025-12-07 6.434977 8.573456 11.177023 14.552415 18.781824 23.872896 30.427884
2025-12-14 5.483002 7.711457 10.547008 14.375937 19.361115 25.576554 33.848633
2025-12-21 4.585920 6.779262 9.684968 13.755580 19.239936 26.293358 35.956765
2025-12-28 4.204157 6.485443 9.612964 14.131885 20.396217 28.661817 40.257854
2026-01-04 3.845935 6.175746 9.473854 14.377895 21.356584 30.782538 44.293936
2026-01-11 3.438434 5.745460 9.116147 14.270528 21.794113 32.187158 47.394260
2026-01-18 3.079737 5.347679 8.763335 14.127729 22.148003 33.463432 50.340709
2026-01-25 2.804464 5.049566 8.528498 14.129745 22.691968 35.008407 53.703309
2026-02-01 2.587973 4.822726 8.379840 14.241694 23.388920 36.784558 57.447531
2026-02-08 2.355778 4.545063 8.125031 14.162938 23.779280 38.112463 60.573276
2026-02-15 2.129019 4.258366 7.838672 14.022491 24.078312 39.336743 63.630963
2026-02-22 1.969783 4.075150 7.708168 14.122575 24.754733 41.153241 67.643298
2026-03-01 1.877601 4.003926 7.759091 14.519815 25.916619 43.748192 72.919939
2026-03-08 1.700721 3.754586 7.478645 14.332920 26.108555 44.830522 75.893575
2026-03-15 1.480446 3.396530 6.973372 13.717884 25.546758 44.682856 76.919383
2026-03-22 1.418349 3.348078 7.028410 14.091939 26.667793 47.269623 82.357677
2026-03-29 1.344146 3.266812 7.014630 14.337836 27.575034 49.535786 87.350830
2026-04-05 1.233344 3.096294 6.816503 14.230555 27.855944 50.773758 90.709568
2026-04-12 1.128837 2.927842 6.608231 14.088166 28.061806 51.885789 93.888465
2026-04-19 1.048956 2.805536 6.481476 14.090155 28.521980 53.436662 97.836953
2026-04-26 0.986512 2.716424 6.414691 14.201840 29.183071 55.348406 102.444002